A tight rope walk in Bihar

 All the flashlights are hogged on two elections that are going to  be held under COVID 19 pandemic. One is US presidential elections and the other is the Bihar assembly elections. One of the most interesting political circuses is to be ushered in Bihar. Bihar elections looked one-sided till last week but a lot got changed since then. It makes it interesting. My candid take on this:

a) Voter turnout is going to be lowest in many and many years not only as Corona is in the air but also not much enthusiasm is in general public either for the govt or for any alternative to the govt.

b) In few segments there is anti-incumbency against the current regime and Nitish being head of the govt, JDU will have to face it bluntly. Lack of jobs in the state and rampant migration to other states are the major fire brewing factors. Corona has added more fuel to this.

c) Many voters are looking for alternative parties and right candidates. In absence of that, there will be a good number of ‘NOTA’ votes. Others and independent candidates will also gain in this election. Winning margins will be very thin on many seats.

c) Bihar elections have widely spread into five blocks: NDA , Mahagathbandhan , LJP , Upendra Kushwaha led block and the public. While kushwaha block is more of ‘vote katwa’ what is called in local political language than the real winners and it will damage more to JDU than any other parties.

d) LJP maneuvering to contest solely is not what meets the eyes. The induction of leaders from BJP and Sangh cadres into the LJP is a well-thought strategy of BJP to keep JDU within the limits. It can not rely on Nitish any more after the 2015 assembly elections. There will be sympathy votes for Late Ramvilas Paswan and it will help LJP at least on few seats for sure.

e) BJP is in pursuit of crossing 90 seats and will help LJP to cross 30 seats at least. It will give BJP the magic number to cross with the help of a few independents or others. BJP wants to be in a position to take a big brother seat in the alliance or maybe the driver seat if needed. Few names that are doing rounds in BJP circle for CM candidates are Ravi Shankar Prasad, Nityanand Rai.

f) BJP is relying on Modi’s popularity and the work is done by the central govt rather than state govt. But the voters of Bihar will vote differently in assembly than what they did in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Caste arithmetic, local issues, candidates' credibility will be more important than the rest of the issues. BJP does need wholehearted support of Nitish caste-based voters to sail across.

g) Elections will be tightly contested as educated and middle class the core votes of BJP and somewhat JDU also, will not turn up in droves to vote for them. In addition, the large scale unemployed youths will add salt to the wound of the current govt. Bihar has the highest number of young voters in the country.

h)A major advantage Nitish enjoys is the support of female voters, young as well as old cutting across the caste and creed lines. They will definitely help him. Ban on alcohol, old-age pensions, water taps in every house, scholarships for 12^th, and graduate girls are popular schemes among the female voters. Nitish hold on ECB ( extremely backward castes ) and distribution of lots of tickets to Yadavs to breach RJD vote bank may also help him.

Many words and lines can be written in election speculation But in short the path of BJP as well as JDU does not look very smooth but they are still in advantage thanks to inexperienced and incredible RJD leadership as well as the fear of the return of ‘Lalu Raj’.

Parle G - The Hope G

Parle G - The ‘Hope G’

Most of the kids belonging to the middle-class families of 
80’s - 90’s may have loving memories of eating Parle G biscuits from its yellow paper wax pack with the photo of a lovely kid. Years passed, cookies took some space of biscuits, kids of those era became parents of kids but the importance and presence of Parle G in the biscuit world remain intact.The same Parle G still entices those kids as well as stray dogs of metros. People started feeding Parle G to puppies because of its low cost. Few because they love pets and few just out of sheer fashion.

The same Parle G turned out to be life savior for thousands and thousands of migrant workers and their families who hit the road in desperate move to reach their villages during the corona lockdown. With few packs of Parle G and water and never-dying hope , they traveled more than a thousand kilometers. Few just on foot, few on cycles and bikes. People mainly migrant laborers from prosper states mainly Tamilnadu, Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat started to travel towards their native and labor-intensive states like U.P, Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal etc within a week of the lockdown. They were walking days and nights on road, railway tracks in a desperate move to survive, and even ready to die among their own people. With hotels, roadside Dhaba, restaurants closed , they had to rely on ready-made or packed food to survive during their long journey. A small pack of low-cost Parle G from any corner stores or from generous ngo , individuals came handy to them. It gave them a hope to have something in their stomach to carry on their desperate and ardors journey. The old and nostalgic Parle G became a new panacea for them and became the ‘Hope G’ for them. Though having lots of biscuits is not considered good for health because of the presence of refined white flour in biscuits. But when there is a race between hunger and fear, hunger has an advantage, forget about nutrition values.

The front line medical staff, transporters, grocery stores, sanitation workers, ngo, and individuals helping people to survive with their services during the uncertain Corona period were termed as ‘Corona Warriors’. It had got one very unusual addition in the list, the ‘Parle G’ as another ‘Corona Warrior’. It indeed helped many to survive a very unusual and difficult times arouse because of Corona and subsequent lockdown.

Around Oct-Nov 2019, people were gauging the health of the Indian economy by the sale of biscuits. Economics pundits predicted signs of the dwindling economy as people were not buying biscuits particularly ‘Parle G’ especially in rural India. Biscuit shelves of grocery stores were almost empty in March - April 2020 during the Corona lockdown. The same Parle G registered its highest growth in its history in the months of March-April 2020, but the market still does not look very green even though the biscuit industry is flying with colors. May be economics pundits will come up with some other yardsticks to gauge the pulse of the economy if not biscuits.

There is another story of Parle G nostalgia. At one end it had become food for puppies in India’s metros because of its cheaper price, it is sold three to four times costlier in countries like the UK, the USA, etc. Sometimes demand is too high in those countries to meet the supply. Those kids of the ’80s-’90s who have come abroad wanted to live their childhood memories with each Parle G dipping in their morning cup of tea. They wanted to relive those moments of sharing Parle G biscuits

 

with their siblings and friends when they had a limited capacity to purchase even Parle G.

Though having many biscuits are not good for health, even the plastic packaging of Parle G like other brands of biscuits is not healthy for the environment. The company should look back to its old paper wax pack to help nature to revive itself with less plastic pollution in the coming days and years. The company which was named after the place where it was started in Mumbai, Ville Parle has seen more than seven decades of its journey. With around 1 billion packs of Parle G biscuits consumed every month, the plastic pollution by it can not be simply ignored.

In the meanwhile Parle G, the new ‘Hope G’ broke all records of sale and rekindled hopes of not only migrant workers but thousands of its staff and their families when there is a real shortage of job opportunities in the country because of the Corona pandemic. It’s time to have a couple of Parle G with tea.

Post Corona World - Revitalised

Will the world be same Post-Corona??

I had written this article in March end and publishing it on 11th May and looks like predictions are on track:

Amid all the chaos, lockdown, and siren of the ambulance coming from the window of my house in the UK, I tried to visualize the ray of hope in the post-Corona world. Nature will rebalance its verticals and horizontals. It will take no less than three months from now, say 28th June for the world to recover and stabilize. What will happen on 28th June, just try to imagine:

 We will be out to see the clearer blue sky, will breathe more pure air and water of ponds, rivers, and oceans will be clearer than what we had seen when we were a very young lad or few had ever seen in their lifetime.

b)Few of us will have large bellies, fairer skin, or sunken eyes or few will be more fit than before. But We will be so delighted to see each other: our friends, neighbors, relatives or even strangers with glitters in everyone's eyes.

c) We will get so much obsessed with screens be it TV, Mobile, I Pads, etc that we will just want to talk and see each other and no inclination for the screen anymore.

d) We never thought there would be a time going to the office will be a pleasure. This is going to happen.

e) We will understand the importance of not only our lives but others too. There will be less road rage, less anger, and more care not only for our fellow human beings but for mother nature also.

f) The hegemony of 'Made in China' will be broken forever. Local economies will spurt and thrive. The habit of purchasing cheap products will take backstage and the importance of local products will be recognized.

g) Each country will focus more on research, hospitals, parks, library, education than on arms and ammunition. Because your ballistic missiles and nuclear arsenals could not defend you from an invisible virus. The mightiest and the bulkiest are at their knees now. There will be a united initiative worldwide for such pandemics.

h) How we will behave, how kind we will be, how generous we will be in these three months will be remembered for many months and years to come.
Hold on your nerves. The battle has just begun. And only the luckiest and the smartest warriors will emerge as victorious to see 'the upcoming magic' say on a date, 28th June.

तथास्तु!!

The Lost Nest

Migration is a natural and a century-old process and is practiced not only in humans but in birds, animals and even in plants also. Sometimes it is driven by natural circumstances like flood, drought, cyclone and other natural calamities and sometimes it is man-made because of govt policies, ethnic conflicts, unequal distribution of wealth, lack of opportunities and proper infrastructure. The migration does not just carry an individual, its skills and its luggage but its culture, memoirs and its longings for its native place.

Migration is prevalent in developed as well as in developing countries though the volume is a quite higher and prevalent practice in developing countries as compared to the developed countries. In developed countries, migration is for the short term and for specific purposes like for academic, research, medical, etc not necessary for money always. But in developing countries, it may be a combination of all the above with money and livelihood being the prime factor. People tend to migrate from one district to another within a state, from a state to another or from one country to another. All the major commercial hubs, facilities are it education or medical are concentrated in few metro cities which are bloated with population exodus and facilities are already strained out in most of the developing countries.

In the UK which is one of the few developed countries in the world, I find most the people tend to work where their parents have stayed, where they have done their schooling or were they born. They might have to commute everyday for an hour or less to reach the workplace from their home. They need not to move out of their native place in search of jobs in most of the cases. There are few factors that help them. The industries, commercial hubs are well distributed over the entire country. Even a small town or suburb has at least a few small or medium scale companies, shopping hubs, and recreational centers. The infrastructure and basic facilities like education and medical are also at arm’s length. Even though if there is any workplace, college or hospital which is a little far away from their home, it can be covered shortly and comfortably because of high speed and punctual trains and buses running on modern rail tracks and well-maintained roads respectively. It does not add hassles to commuters. In fact, it gives them wings to fly and return to their nest in the evening.

In India, interstate migration is higher in north and east regions than in south or west regions. There may be historical, geographical or political reasons behind this. People from western and southern states tend to migrate to other countries than to other Indian states. Most of the industries and prominent medical and educational institutes are located in the west and south region. There are many villages in northern and eastern states where many houses have no young male available as they had to leave the place in search of either education or livelihood. These are houses of young women with babies and old parents. They patiently wait for their young lad’s phone calls and messages as well as the money they send from distant places be it Baroda or Bangalore. The migration is rampant not only in black collar jobs but in blue-collar jobs too.

The cycle of migration is mischievous. First, it forces you because of your need then it makes you habitual of the metro lifestyles and its busyness. Sometimes luxury becomes a necessity. Sometimes the cacophony of metros sounds like the cuckoo’s song. Similarly, the ‘migrated human birds’ tend to make their new nest in those metros. Most of the time these new nests are much smaller and restricted ones than the ones which they originally left when they had no choice. But we become used to these new nests. Erstwhile unknown face of the metros gradually becomes part of it. The already bloated metros keep on swelling over and over again. Government and policymakers continue to keep their primary focus on the lively and bubbly metros and it’s overcrowded busy inhabitants. Whereas the old and decrepit nest continue to wait for their young birds before it will finally go to ruins.Yes, the nests which are in our villages.

Let's play 20-20 in Delhi

Let's play 20-20 in Delhi

2020 Delhi assembly elections are over and Arvind Kejriwal is going to take oath on Sunday. There are many takeaways from the high voltage election and its outcome. Few points which I feel are very important and crucial takeaways:

a) First and foremost, it is squarely unfair to term voters of Delhi as a traitor, Non-Hindu, etc as they have been called since exit polls. The same set of voters had given all its seats to BJP in 2019 Lok sabha not even a year ago. Why were there no similar questions raised to people of Jharkhand, another smaller state where the son of a tainted politician became chief minister a few months back where BJP was defending? Even BJP chief minister lost in his own constituency in Jamshedpur. But not many of us know this. It is crystal clear that voters know what they are voting for, be it for Lok Sabha, assembly or MCD. Voters in the north region vote differently in state and central elections than their counterparts in the south. I firmly believe if voters of Delhi are asked again to vote for Lok sabha now, they may give at least 6 seats to BJP.

b) Now coming to party-wise. (C-B-A). Congress: I had mentioned about its blunder to tie up with RJD. All the four RJD candidates lost their security in this election. Either Congress itself made a self-goal or they intentionally wanted to lose badly to help AAP.

c) BJP -- BJP gave a spirited fight in the last 2 weeks. If it had planned a strategy earlier with an honest and young credible face for chief minister candidate, there might be a good chance of coming back. It unleashed all the man, minister, media and money power in its disposal. It helped BJP which managed to increase overall vote share by 5% and got gain in 63 seats from last assembly elections. Pravesh Verma, son of one of the most honest leaders of BJP, Late Shaib Singh Verma may have become chief minister if BJP managed to get enough required seats.

d) Now on Aap - The crushing defeat of 2017 MCD elections changed the game for AAP. Kejriwal understood it well not to take the name of Modi any more and concentrate solely on work. It helped Aap and so the people of Delhi. Kejriwal did not take Modi's name at all in elections and maintained a safe distance from Shaheen Bagh protests. It helped him. The over-ambitious Kejriwal will try to come to the national diaspora in coming years if he managed to perform again in Delhi.

e) Finally a quick look at 3 assembly seats which are very important. Sanjiv Jha from Burari won by the highest margin. Burari has the highest concentration of Purvanchali voters.Manish Sisodia sneaked a narrow victory in Patparganj. He should say thanks to Uttarakhandi candidate of Congress who split vote of BJP candidate Mr Negi, another Uttarkhandi. Patparganj has around 20% population of Utarakhandi and they vote in consolidation. Mustafabad where AAP won and gained increase of 23% vote share (highest increase in any assembly seat). BJP had won here in 2015 amid AAP's tsunami. Muslim consolidated vote and loss of congress traditional vote helped AAP to cross 50 seats.

Elections are a frequent exercise in democracy, so the dignity of voters must be respected. Because you never know...